I think Farage other reason for a no-show — “I am damned if I am going to stand on a stage […] and be demeaned and humiliated by nobodies,” — is nearer the mark.
He didn’t want to be embarrassed by Binface.
Anymore than he already has been.
Lastly … ?
I think that — in triggering this joke of a by-election — Farage has done one thing very well.
He’s wasted public money on a delaying tactic: one that hopefully won’t stop the investigation into his finances.
And sees him named and shamed as the waster he is.